Theoretical Win

Posted: April 25, 2011 in Uncategorized

The Theoretical Win (TW) is the profit the casino makes off of each guest to their casino. It’s called a “win” since it’s from the casino’s perspective and not the player’s. It’s “theoretical” because a lot of factors or inputs influence the calculate of the win and therefore it can fluxuate, sometimes wildly. The TW formula for a Blackjack player is the following:

(Size of bet) X (Hours Played) X (Hands per Hour) X (House Advantage)

If a person was sitting at a $5.00 Blackjack table and played there for one hour, that individual’s theoretical win to the casino would be $20 dollars. This is assuming 100 hands of Blackjack were played in that hour and the house advantage of Blackjack in that casino is 4%. From a players perspective it’s important to note that, every rule difference between casinos and every change in bet as well as slow-down or speed-up in play, will effect the TW.

Actual Win (AW) is most accurately monitored through the use of a affinity program such as a Players Club. Particularly with slots, when a Player uses a  Players Card, the AW is precisely calculated. Through use of the Players Card, casinos can see your real worth to the casino and can provide comps (complimentaries) that hopefully keep you playing at their casino.

The decision to use or not use a Player Card is up to each and every Player. From my perspective, and armed with the reality that the casino always has an advantage over the player, you might as well take advantage of every comp that you can get, to help balance out the playing field. But as always,  never chase prizes or cash by playing over your budget

The Insider 


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